Aggressive market timing systemfor mutual fund trading

Trend I.D. for the NASDAQ Composite Index (MOTC)

System Characteristics

BASIS ~ The most relevant benchmark  for investing in most managed, diversified U.S. stock funds, the NASDAQ Composite index.

RELEVANCE ~ Market timing based upon what matters, price.

INFREQUENT EXCHANGES ~ avg. 1.4 per year.

TESTED ~ All key performance criteria for 44 years covering a variety of market conditions.

OBJECTIVITY ~  "Buy" and "Sell" signals are mechanical and require no subjective analysis.

USER FRIENDLINESS ~ Greatly reduced portfolio drawdowns and minimal trading losses.

PROFITS ~  Applying market timing to the index nearly doubles average annualized gains in backtests.

CONSISTENCY ~  High ranking performance in bull markets, bear markets and trendless markets.

System Development

    The MOTC is designed to identify the trends of the NASDAQ Composite Index.  That index was selected in 1995 as the best proxy for mutual fund trading.  I developed my own system because I had subscribed to many market timing newsletters that had provided me poor and mixed results.  Many top technical analysts taught me what does not work.  Gerald Appel got me started on the right track with his MACD system.

  The Moneyflow OTC Oscillator is my unique contribution to technical analysis.  It is more complex than MACD and makes it possible to avoid the pitfalls of subjective analysis.  The Long, Short and Cash signals generated by the system are generated by six different oscillators.  The system has worked better than other trend I.D. tools because it is a composite system with advanced formulas.

  The six formula products are in the form of positive and negative "percentages."  Different percentage combinations define the signals.  Multiple signal definitions have contributed to our successful record by making the system relevant to a variety of market conditions.

Links

 45 Year System Performance Tests

The Why? and How? of It

NASDAQ 100 Index Market Timing System

HOME ~ Market Timing Systems for Mutual Fund Investing

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Disclaimer

 

Subscription to Computerized Programs and NASDAQ Moneyflow Report

  The Moneyflow OTC market timing system is only available in the form of a subscription.  Each month, a system update is e-mailed to subscribers in the form of an Excel spreadsheet file for use on a home computer and/or notebook computer or PDA. *  The spreadsheet file is compressed in a .zip file.  (Most computers sold today have .zip file opening software included.)

  This file is a genuine computer program in that it updates the signal status when the NDX daily close is entered in column B and a simple MACRO shortcut is executed with a keystroke.  A second MACRO that automatically downloads the (usually available) data from our website and updates the status is an advanced feature of this Excel program file.   

  * Excel is required because other spreadsheets cannot open the encrypted, formula hidden/locked, spreadsheet file -- nor use the MACRO's.  The program file is compatible with Windows and MAC versions and, presumably, with Mobile Excel for Windows.

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Technical Information

Since the only thing that matters is price, Moneyflow OTC and NDX systems are based upon the price of the index, period.  ("Money Flow" analysis that includes volume figures can be very misleading at times.)   I turned Appel's type of price trend/momentum analysis into a more objective, mechanical system with a unique, unpublished formula, the "Moneyflow Oscillator", that is my contribution to technical analysis.  I use more than one type of formula to massage price and create an oscillator that rises and falls below a zero line.  I require a combination of  oscillator readings to generate a change in signals.  In order to accommodate a variety of market conditions tested over 40 years, I require more than one signal definition for Long, Cash and Short signals to be triggered.

Disclosure

This service has no affiliation with the owners of the NASDAQ indexes or Microsoft.  The names of our report and our systems derives from the aim of this service: i.e. identifying significant trends in the NASDAQ Composite and 100 index daily close when the risk (based upon decades of historical data analysis) appears to be relatively low.  Frequency of newsletter publishing, now weekly, is subject to change.  No author, publisher or system creator can guarantee future profits based upon past performance.  No guarantees, personal investment advice, recommendations or referrals are implied by the content of Moneyflow .com publications, systems or websites.  Signals generated by the computerized programs represent a First Amendment opinion about market risk that is based upon historical analysis of all available data.  Use at your own risk.  The content of our investment resources is proprietary, intellectual property of Richard Calkins, rc at moneyflow com