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No
provider of market timing systems can guarantee future profits based
upon past performance because stock market history repeats itself,
but in an infinite variety of ways.
Good trend systems
take turns working best. The best market timing
systems will work better under some market conditions than others. In rather trendless markets ~ like
Jan.-July,2004 ~ they tend to be
less efficient. Some whipsaws are inevitable. Realists expect
some losing trades
and buying back at higher prices. This is the cost of
"insurance" against major losses during prolonged
downtrends.
Our system's signals
represent a view of market conditions, based upon historical analysis.
The evidence suggests that trend/momentum systems are inherently more
reliable than other types of systems; but false signals can occur. * |
Study The
Why? and How? of It
for advice on responsibly choosing/using systems. Please see
the performance information linked to the system descriptions for
examples for the inevitable periods when systems are inefficient.
No personalized investment advice, referrals or recommendations are
implied by Moneyflow.com publications because I am not a certified
investment professional; and there is no way we can know individuals
well enough to provide this service.
Always read the prospectus and check with brokers for important
conditions, such as redemption fees, before investing.
Accuracy is a very high
priority; but it cannot be guaranteed. We do not disclose or sell
mailing lists. We use blind carbon copy mailings; but we cannot
guarantee privacy. Please e-mail corrections, comments and questions:
rc at moneyflow com. |
HOME ~ Market Timing Systems for Mutual Fund Investing
NASDAQ Composite Index Market
Timing System
NASDAQ 100 Index Market
Timing System
e-Book:
Market Based Mutual
Fund Investing
Richard Calkins |
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* Whipsaws are fake-out changes in trend, buying and/or selling within a
relatively short period of time. They result in a trading loss and/or
buying back at higher prices. Whipsaws are inevitable with the best
of systems. Drawdowns are drops in portfolio values during a trade
or accumulated during a series of trades. Moneyflow systems are
optimized to reduce the number of whipsaws and the size of drawdowns;
however, it bears repeating that every good system has periods of
time when frustrating inefficiencies occur. I.e. Systems
that reduce risk and capture gains at some times cannot be expected
to do so in all times. Those who cannot tolerate such
inefficiencies cannot benefit from the best of systems. Users
of Moneyflow systems should assume all responsibility for how they
are used or abstain. |
